The rising frequency of extreme weather events is already disrupting where people can live, including in New Jersey. As a coastal state, New Jersey faces rising sea levels, stronger storms, and increased inland flooding, as seen with Superstorm Sandy (2012) and storms Isaias (2020) and Ida (2021). Nearly 1.7 million residents—about one-fifth of the state’s population—live in areas that are flood-prone, either now or within this century.
Meanwhile, New Jersey’s population, and the nation’s, is getting older. The Census Bureau projects that by 2034, there will be more people in the U.S. over the age of 65 than under 18. From 2010 to 2020, New Jersey’s 65+ population increased by 29%, while the total population increased by just under 6%.
These two phenomena – the aging of the population and the increasing frequency of major inland and coastal flooding events – are converging to create a situation that is not well understood by experts in either the aging-friendly community or in the resilience and disaster-preparedness communities. Older adults, age 65+, face heightened risks from extreme weather and greater challenges adapting. Yet retirees are perennially attracted to higher-risk areas like the Jersey Shore – Cape May and Ocean counties have the two highest percentages of residents aged 65 or older among the state’s 21 counties, each exceeding 20%.
New Jersey Future has released a new report, Weathering the Storms, that examines the 285,000 residents aged 65+ who are living in areas that are prone to flooding, either now or before the end of the century. It describes the difficulties confronting them, whether they choose to remain in place or relocate, and outlines actions for state and local governments to expand the availability of aging-friendly communities that are also out of harm’s way.
The report’s key findings reveal challenges for older adults and relatively few aging-friendly places to live that are away from flood hazard zones
- Older adults are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events, especially individuals that may have physical and/or cognitive limitations. Power outages and potential isolation during disasters are serious concerns for this population.
- Strategies focused on “adapting in place,” including raising buildings, can present both financial and accessibility challenges for older residents.
- Relatively few neighborhoods that are safe from flooding offer aging-friendly characteristics such as walkable streets, nearby amenities, and affordable housing alternatives to single-family homes.
- A large fraction of existing neighborhoods that are aging-friendly, at low risk from flooding, and affordable are concentrated in the state’s older urban centers, while many safer areas are car-dependent suburbs ill-suited for aging residents.
What state and local leaders can do
Preparing for the coming convergence of an aging population and increasing risk from flooding events will involve efforts by multiple levels of government and by others interested in promoting aging-friendly development. They should:
- Prevent new development in high-risk areas while implementing appropriate protective measures for existing communities
- Update land-use policies to ensure the parts of the state that are at relatively low risk from flooding can accommodate relocating older residents
- Modify zoning to increase affordable housing options in aging-friendly neighborhoods
- Retrofit car-oriented communities to be more aging-friendly through strategic redevelopment and transportation options
- Integrate education and assistance in preparing for and dealing with extreme weather events into existing senior services programs
The state must act to protect its vulnerable 65+ population from weather-related threats while ensuring access to neighborhoods that support aging in place. By preparing now, areas with lower flood risk can welcome older residents seeking safer ground.